Donald Trump is a self-proclaimed “America First” president. Perhaps unsurprisingly, that has translated into a much stronger focus on domestic issues than foreign policy.
This is not to say President Trump has no foreign policy, only that he speaks about it less. Certainly he has the power to affect change globally. He comments on China’s economic rise, a wall with Mexico, the capital of Israel, the conditions of the developing world, and the threat of North Korea and Iran. He also speaks regularly about immigration and refugeeism, though this is framed from a purely America-First perspective.
During Barack Obama’s presidency, I tracked his State of the Union addresses as a crude indicator of his foreign policy. How many mentions did various countries receive over the years of his presidency? How were other nations spoken about? Was there a change in the president’s rhetoric from 2012 to 2016?
I repeat: this is a crude gauge. But because State of the Union addresses are such prominent, sweeping speeches, and because every word in them is meticulously hemmed and hawed over, resulting in a speech typically used as a rubric for the political year ahead and behind, I find tracking such metrics to be an interesting exercise.
Here I conduct the same experiment with President Trump’s annual speech. The findings, especially in contrast to President Obama, are stark.
How Trump and Obama Talk About Foreign Policy
In 2017, because it was the first year of President Trump’s term in office, he gave a joint address to Congress. It isn’t officially considered a State of the Union address, but it is generally thought of in the same way. In that speech, foreign policy was almost a non-issue. He mentioned Iran, Israel, and China one time each. He did not mention Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia, or North Korea at all. He said the United States “strongly” supports NATO and he made a few generic statements about what is happening abroad, mostly negative: “We’ve spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas, while our infrastructure at home has so badly crumbled,” “Overseas we have inherited a series of tragic foreign policy disasters,” and “Our foreign policy calls for a direct, robust and meaningful engagement with the world.”
President Trump’s 2018 State of the Union address was also void of most foreign policy positions, though immigration did play prominently. In his speech, Syria, Israel, and Russia each get a only a single mention. Iran and China are both referenced specifically three times. North Korea gets far and away the most citations, with seven references specifically to North Korea or North Koreans. By comparison, in the last year of his presidency, Barack Obama referenced Iran and China the most, with Iraq and Afghanistan close behind, with three mentions each. North Korea was not mentioned a single time.
Below, I’ve compiled the number of mentions President Trump and President Obama have given to various countries in their State of the Union addresses. I’ve also selected what I see as a representative quotation for each.
Foreign policy is always changing. The way presidents and the American public talk about foreign policy changes, too. But let us not believe it is pure causation, that the world affects the way we speak. We must also realize that the way we speak—and especially the way presidents speak—affects the world.
Syria
2018 (1 mention): “Last year, I also pledged that we would work with our allies to extinguish ISIS from the face of the Earth. One year later, I am proud to report that the coalition to defeat ISIS has liberated very close to 100% of the territory just recently held by these killers in Iraq and in Syria and in other locations as well.”
2017 (0 mentions)
2016 (1 mention): “In Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change can’t be reversed, and that human dignity can’t be denied.”
2015 (2 mentions): “In Iraq and Syria, American leadership — including our military power — is stopping ISIL’s advance. Instead of getting dragged into another ground war in the Middle East, we are leading a broad coalition, including Arab nations, to degrade and ultimately destroy this terrorist group. We’re also supporting a moderate opposition in Syria that can help us in this effort, and assisting people everywhere who stand up to the bankrupt ideology of violent extremism. This effort will take time. It will require focus. But we will succeed. And tonight, I call on this Congress to show the world that we are united in this mission by passing a resolution to authorize the use of force against ISIL.”
2014 (3 mentions): “In Syria, we’ll support the opposition that rejects the agenda of terrorist networks…. American diplomacy, backed by the threat of force, is why Syria’s chemical weapons are being eliminated, and we will continue to work with the international community to usher in the future the Syrian people deserve – a future free of dictatorship, terror and fear.”
2013 (2 mentions): “We’ll keep the pressure on a Syrian regime that has murdered its own people, and support opposition leaders that respect the rights of every Syrian.”
2012 (1 mention): “And in Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change cannot be reversed, and that human dignity cannot be denied.”
Iran
2018 (3 mentions): “As we strengthen friendships all around the world, we are also restoring clarity about our adversaries. When the people of Iran rose up against the crimes of their corrupt dictatorship, I did not stay silent. America stands with the people of Iran in their courageous struggle for freedom. I am asking Congress to address the fundamental flaws in the terrible Iran nuclear deal.”
2017 (1 mention): “I have also imposed new sanctions on entities and individuals who support Iran’s ballistic missile program, and reaffirmed our unbreakable alliance with the State of Israel.”
2016 (4 mentions): “And we will safeguard America’s own security against those who threaten our citizens, our friends, and our interests. Look at Iran. Through the power of our diplomacy, a world that was once divided about how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program now stands as one. The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent. Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal. But a peaceful resolution of this issue is still possible, and far better, and if Iran changes course and meets its obligations, it can rejoin the community of nations.”
2015 (4 mentions): “Our diplomacy is at work with respect to Iran, where, for the first time in a decade, we’ve halted the progress of its nuclear program and reduced its stockpile of nuclear material. Between now and this spring, we have a chance to negotiate a comprehensive agreement that prevents a nuclear-armed Iran; secures America and our allies — including Israel; while avoiding yet another Middle East conflict. There are no guarantees that negotiations will succeed, and I keep all options on the table to prevent a nuclear Iran. But new sanctions passed by this Congress, at this moment in time, will all but guarantee that diplomacy fails — alienating America from its allies; and ensuring that Iran starts up its nuclear program again. It doesn’t make sense. That is why I will veto any new sanctions bill that threatens to undo this progress.”
2014 (10 mentions): “And it is American diplomacy, backed by pressure, that has halted the progress of Iran’s nuclear program–and rolled parts of that program back–for the very first time in a decade. As we gather here tonight, Iran has begun to eliminate its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium. It is not installing advanced centrifuges. Unprecedented inspections help the world verify, every day, that Iran is not building a bomb. And with our allies and partners, we’re engaged in negotiations to see if we can peacefully achieve a goal we all share: preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. These negotiations will be difficult. They may not succeed. We are clear-eyed about Iran’s support for terrorist organizations like Hezbollah, which threaten our allies; and the mistrust between our nations cannot be wished away. But these negotiations do not rely on trust; any long-term deal we agree to must be based on verifiable action that convinces us and the international community that Iran is not building a nuclear bomb. If John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan could negotiate with the Soviet Union, then surely a strong and confident America can negotiate with less powerful adversaries today. The sanctions that we put in place helped make this opportunity possible. But let me be clear: if this Congress sends me a new sanctions bill now that threatens to derail these talks, I will veto it. For the sake of our national security, we must give diplomacy a chance to succeed. If Iran’s leaders do not seize this opportunity, then I will be the first to call for more sanctions, and stand ready to exercise all options to make sure Iran does not build a nuclear weapon. But if Iran’s leaders do seize the chance, then Iran could take an important step to rejoin the community of nations, and we will have resolved one of the leading security challenges of our time without the risks of war.”
2013 (1 mention): “Likewise, the leaders of Iran must recognize that now is the time for a diplomatic solution, because a coalition stands united in demanding that they meet their obligations, and we will do what is necessary to prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon.”
2012 (4 mentions): “Look at Iran. Through the power of our diplomacy, a world that was once divided about how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program now stands as one. The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent. Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal.”
Israel
2018 (1 mention): “Last month, I also took an action endorsed unanimously by the U.S. Senate, just months before. I recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.”
2017 (1 mention): “I have also imposed new sanctions on entities and individuals who support Iran’s ballistic missile program, and reaffirmed our unbreakable alliance with the State of Israel.”
2016 (1 mention): “Our iron-clad commitment to Israel’s security has meant the closest military cooperation between our two countries in history.”
2015 (1 mention): “Between now and this spring, we have a chance to negotiate a comprehensive agreement that prevents a nuclear-armed Iran; secures America and our allies — including Israel; while avoiding yet another Middle East conflict.”
2014 (2 mentions): “As we speak, American diplomacy is supporting Israelis and Palestinians as they engage in difficult but necessary talks to end the conflict there; to achieve dignity and an independent state for Palestinians, and lasting peace and security for the State of Israel – a Jewish state that knows America will always be at their side.”
2013 (1 mention): “And we will stand steadfast with Israel in pursuit of security and a lasting peace.”
2012 (1 mention): “Our ironclad commitment — and I mean ironclad — to Israel’s security has meant the closest military cooperation between our two countries in history.”
Iraq
2018 (1 mention): “Last year, I also pledged that we would work with our allies to extinguish ISIS from the face of the Earth. One year later, I am proud to report that the coalition to defeat ISIS has liberated very close to 100% of the territory just recently held by these killers in Iraq and in Syria and in other locations as well.”
2017 (0 mentions)
2016 (3 mentions): “For the first time in nine years, there are no Americans fighting in Iraq.”
2015 (2 mentions): “Six years ago, nearly 180,000 American troops served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, fewer than 15,000 remain.”
2014 (3 mentions): “When I took office, nearly 180,000 Americans were serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, all our troops are out of Iraq.”
2013 (0 mentions)
2012 (3 mentions): “For the first time in nine years, there are no Americans fighting in Iraq.”
Afghanistan
2018 (1 mention): “As of a few months ago, our warriors in Afghanistan have new rules of engagement.”
2017 (0 mentions)
2016 (3 mentions): “From this position of strength, we’ve begun to wind down the war in Afghanistan. Ten thousand of our troops have come home. Twenty-three thousand more will leave by the end of this summer. This transition to Afghan lead will continue, and we will build an enduring partnership with Afghanistan, so that it is never again a source of attacks against America.”
2015 (3 mentions): “Tonight, for the first time since 9/11, our combat mission in Afghanistan is over. Six years ago, nearly 180,000 American troops served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, fewer than 15,000 remain…. Instead of Americans patrolling the valleys of Afghanistan, we’ve trained their security forces, who’ve now taken the lead, and we’ve honored our troops’ sacrifice by supporting that country’s first democratic transition.”
2014 (6 mentions): “More than 60,000 of our troops have already come home from Afghanistan. With Afghan forces now in the lead for their own security, our troops have moved to a support role. Together with our allies, we will complete our mission there by the end of this year, and America’s longest war will finally be over. After 2014, we will support a unified Afghanistan as it takes responsibility for its own future. If the Afghan government signs a security agreement that we have negotiated, a small force of Americans could remain in Afghanistan with NATO allies to carry out two narrow missions: training and assisting Afghan forces, and counterterrorism operations to pursue any remnants of al Qaeda. For while our relationship with Afghanistan will change, one thing will not: our resolve that terrorists do not launch attacks against our country.”
2013 (4 mentions): “Tonight, I can announce that over the next year, another 34,000 American troops will come home from Afghanistan. This drawdown will continue and by the end of next year, our war in Afghanistan will be over.”
2012 (3 mentions): “From this position of strength, we’ve begun to wind down the war in Afghanistan. Ten thousand of our troops have come home. Twenty-three thousand more will leave by the end of this summer. This transition to Afghan lead will continue, and we will build an enduring partnership with Afghanistan, so that it is never again a source of attacks against America.”
Russia
2018 (1 mention): “As we rebuild America’s strength and confidence at home, we are also restoring our strength and standing abroad. Around the world, we face rogue regimes, terrorist groups, and rivals like China and Russia that challenge our interests, our economy and our values.”
2017 (0 mentions)
2016 (1 mention): “And this Congress should make sure that no foreign company has an advantage over American manufacturing when it comes to accessing finance or new markets like Russia.”
2015 (2 mentions): “We’re upholding the principle that bigger nations can’t bully the small — by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine’s democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies. Last year, as we were doing the hard work of imposing sanctions along with our allies, some suggested that Mr. Putin’s aggression was a masterful display of strategy and strength. Well, today, it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters. That’s how America leads — not with bluster, but with persistent, steady resolve.”
2014 (0 mentions)
2013 (1 mention): “At the same time, we’ll engage Russia to seek further reductions in our nuclear arsenals, and continue leading the global effort to secure nuclear materials that could fall into the wrong hands — because our ability to influence others depends on our willingness to lead and meet our obligations.”
2012 (1 mention): “And this Congress should make sure that no foreign company has an advantage over American manufacturing when it comes to accessing financing or new markets like Russia.”
China
2018 (3 mention): “As we rebuild America’s strength and confidence at home, we are also restoring our strength and standing abroad. Around the world, we face rogue regimes, terrorist groups, and rivals like China and Russia that challenge our interests, our economy and our values.” The other two references to China came up only as context for the story of Ji Seong-ho, an escapee from North Korea.
2017 (1 mention): “We’ve lost more than one-fourth of our manufacturing jobs since NAFTA was approved, and we’ve lost 60,000 factories since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.”
2016 (4 mentions): “I will not cede the wind or solar or battery industry to China or Germany because we refuse to make the same commitment here.”
2015 (3 mentions): “But as we speak, China wants to write the rules for the world’s fastest-growing region. That would put our workers and businesses at a disadvantage. Why would we let that happen? We should write those rules.”
2014 (2 mentions): “And for the first time in over a decade, business leaders around the world have declared that China is no longer the world’s number one place to invest; America is.”
2013 (1 mention): “As long as countries like China keep going all in on clean energy, so must we.”
2012 (4 mentions): “We’ve brought trade cases against China at nearly twice the rate as the last administration –- and it’s made a difference…. Tonight, I’m announcing the creation of a Trade Enforcement Unit that will be charged with investigating unfair trading practices in countries like China.”
North Korea
2018 (7 mentions): “But no regime has oppressed its own citizens more totally, more brutally, than the cruel dictatorship in North Korea. North Korea’s reckless pursuit of nuclear missiles could very soon threaten our homeland. We are waging a campaign of maximum pressure to prevent that from ever happening.” Most of the other references came in the story of North Korean defector Ji Seong-ho.
2017 (0 mentions)
2016 (0 mentions)
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